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Media reports claim South Korea is close to being chosen to supply submarines to Indonesia

There are South Korean media reports claiming that Taufik Kiemas, the Speaker of Indonesia's Upper House of Parliament, informed Daewoo Heavy Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering officials that their company is almost certain to be chosen to supply submarines to the Indonesian Navy. I blogged about this acquisition program recently.

"Indonesia will likely pick Korea as the preferred bidder for its submarine acquisition program, worth $1.08 billion, industrial sources said Thursday. ..“France has been practically eliminated from the race,” an official of Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine (DSME) said, asking for anonymity." (Korea Times)

"Indonesia is close to picking Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering as the priority negotiating partner for a submarine project worth US$1.08 billion...A senior government official said Taufik Kiemas, the speaker of the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly, told Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik on Wednesday morning that Daewoo is virtually certain to get the nod for the project. "There still are some more processes to follow, but the deal will be struck, unless something comes up," the official said." (Chosun Ilbo)

It will not be surprising if Korea picks this contract up because Indonesia and Korea have developed a strong relationship in the defence industry arena. Indonesian submarines were repaired in Korea and two years ago there was talk of a counter trade deal between the two countries as involving Korean made submarines and Indonesian made CN-235 aircraft.

Indonesia's population expected to double by 2045 - can Indonesia cope?

I was listening to Australia's ABC radio program Connect Asia and they had a story discussing some of the results of the 2010 Indonesia census. The key result was the projected population growth in Indonesia.

"Indonesia is being confronted with a rapidly growing population, projected to double to 450 million by 2045.  The Indonesian Government faces a serious challenge in dealing with a potential population boom that could result in one out of every 20 people in the world being Indonesian."

A historic picture on the threat from Asia - the Yellow Peril

I was listening to the New Books in East Asian Studies Podcast on Michael Kevaak's Becoming Yellow: A short history on Racial Thinking. It was interesting to hear the development of the colour 'yellow' being used to describe Asians and then how this also emerged as the 'Yellow Peril.' Kevaak discussed a picture that was created on the orders of Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany in 1895. It showed St Michael with a group of armed women, including Britannia, peering from a cliff top at an approaching, menacing Buddha. The picture was reproduced in Harper's Weekly thus reaching a wide audience.

 
Peoples of Europe, guard your dearest goods (Source)

FPRI's scholar's testimony on Taiwan before the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs

Taiwan is unfortunately not a place that I know much about. I am trying to rectify that situation as I can understand that Taiwan has significance to the Chinese strategic view of East Asia. I have generally seen the Chinese strategic view towards Taiwan as being passive, that is willing to wait for political negotiations to achieve unification rather than resorting to war; as long as Taiwan did not declare independence.' However, according to the FPRI's Dr June Teufel Dreyer's testimony (link) before the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs the mainland Chinese actually have a far more aggressive plan for Taiwan:

"...the Chinese military has been a focus of my research efforts for the past several decades. In this capacity, I regularly read military journals from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) dealing with defense matters. The militant tone of the articles contained therein is striking, as is the way Chinese strategists view Taiwan—not as an end in itself, a terra irredenta that must be possessed, but as a stepping stone for reaching China’s larger goals of controlling the regional sea lanes and beyond. Chinese analysts concentrate on the importance of Taiwan to the PRC’s strategic future. The inability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to break out of the first island chain into the Pacific without first taking Taiwan is standard commentary in Chinese journals."

The next paragraph follows in a similar vein:

"Another supposition that is noticeable in the journals is that the PLA navy can attain decisive command of the seas by projecting power eastward from Taiwan. One commentator states that Taiwan is currently a shackle but that, if possessed by the PRC, would be the key to the open ocean. Since the island occupies the mid-section of the first island chain, PRC strategists reason, its capture would cut the chain in two. Chinese fleet and naval aviation units could use Taiwan as a major base. Sea and air combat radii from bases on the island would reach the flanks of Japan and the Philippines."

Emergency decree in Southern Thailand extended for another two months

The outgoing Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, held his final cabinet meeting today in Bangkok. There were a number of routine actions to complete and the government also extended emergency rule in the three southern provinces (Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala) by two months, as opposed to the usual three months.

Mr Abhisit said the 60-day extension was proposed instead of the usual three-month extension because the new government would be in charge by then. This would allow the next administration to make its own decision, he said.

 11 Jul 11 roadside bomb in Yala (Source: Bangkok Post)

Reports of a Taiwanese missile firing from a submarine are false

Defense News carried a report a few days back that the news that a Taiwanese Navy Dutch built HAI LUNG Class submarine had fired Hsiung Feng 2 anti-ship missile were false. The definitive statement was:

Taiwan's Hai Lung's have "absolutely no capability" of launching anti-ship missiles from their torpedo tubes, said a former Taiwan Navy official who worked with ordnance used on the submarines. "This is common sense since they still have problems with just launching torpedoes with the old fire control system."

 Hai Lung Submarine cutaway (Source: Dutchsubmarines.com)

Brunei Darussalam releases its 2011 Defence White Paper, the third since 2004

The Sultanate of Brunei Darussalam released its 2011 Defence White Paper on last Wednesday, 06 July 2011 at the opening of the 3rd Brunei Darussalam International Defence Exhibition and Conference (BRIDEX 2011). The White Paper was formally released by the Sultan of Brunei, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah, which makes sense as the Sultan concurrently serves as the Defense Minister and the Supreme Commander of the Royal Brunei Armed Forces. Unfortunately, the full text is not up on the web yet but a lengthy accompanying media statement was printed in the Borneo Bulletin. The policy has been titled,  'Defending The Nation's Sovereignty: Expanding Roles In Wider Horizons.'

 (Source: Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Defence)

Martial Arts Groups and implementing domestic security in Malaysia and Indonesia

This recent article in The Malaysian Insider gives the impression that the Malaysian Prime Minister, Datuk Sei Najib Razak, is endorsing the concept of using a national martial arts organisation as  'third line of [national] defence' primarily against internal unauthorised political movements.

“I believe if there are evil enemies who want to attack the country from without and within, ‘anak-anak lincah’ [the members of this martial art] will rise to fight them.”

The context of the remark was that it was said at a meeting of the Pertubuhan Seni Silat Lincah Malaysia (PSSLM or Malaysian Silat Lincah Martial Arts Organisation) during which the Grand Master of the organisation, Tan Sri Omardin Mauju, commented:

“We maintain our stand to go to ‘war’ if they still want to proceed with this illegal rally. If it happens, I cannot guarantee I can control the emotions of my members because they have been taught to act when faced with opposition.”

An interesting quote on Indonesian defence strategy from a former Defence Minister

I am currently reading Monsoon by Robert Kaplan. In chapter 14, entitled 'The heart of Maritime Asia' Kaplan had a very interesting quote from the former Indonesian Minister of Defence, Juwono Sudarsono. On page 272 of my copy of the book was the following:

The strategy of the Indonesian military, Defence Minister Juwono Sudarsono told me, is one of "patience": hold the line while a middle class develops further, providing the tax revenue for a larger military, especially a navy; in the meantime, continue to participate in UN peacekeeping operations to raise international stature, and thus be morally defended by the international community.

I think this is more likely a description rather than an objective but it was the first time that I have seen this long term strategy laid out so starkly. A quick internet search did not bring up any similar public remarks so this will have to stand alone as short assessment from somebody who was at the heart of the Indonesian defence establishment.

Thai Army accepts election results but for how long and at what cost?

With the election of Yingluck Shinawatra as the next Prime Minister of Thailand, all those with an interest in the Thai military were wondering what the long-term reaction would be from the defence establishment. The outgoing Defence Minister, General (retd) Prawit Wongsuwon has made the 'obligatory' statement of acceptance:

"I have talked to military leaders. We will allow politicians to work it out. The military will not get involved," General Prawit Wongsuwon told AFP. (Source: Channel News Asia)

Given ROK Marine's tragedy the opening of an Army shooting range to the public was unfortunate timing

Given the tragic shooting at the ROK Marine post on Kanghwa Islandit was probably unfortunate that the ROK Army announced on the same day plans to open an Army shooting range to the public. Given the recent events I suspect that this statement will change (my emphasis given):

The official said that they have not drawn up specific safety measures as a private organization that will primarily run the ranges has yet to be selected. But the plan is to conclude a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the chosen entity within the month. (Source)

 
The ROK Ministry of National Defence

The Hikayat Prang Sabi - A really useful text for rebellion

I was doing some reading about the early use of jihadi inspired suicide terrorism in Asia and came across reference to the Hikayat Prang Sabi-HPS (The Story of the War in the Path of God). It was a hikayat or story written in a very romantic form of verse about the Acehnese resistance to the Dutch in the 1873-1913 war. It was intended as a work to support the message of jihad of the Acehnese religious leader, Teuku Chik di Tiro (1836-91) in his fight against the Dutch.

What I found interesting was that according to the scholar Stephen Dale it was also imported into the Southern Philippines to inspire the Moros fighting the Spanish and a quick search on the web showed that it was used more recently as a source of inspiration for the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)in its fight against the central Indonesian Government. A very good examination of what the document means in regards to the Acehnese concept of war is available here.

Teuku Chik di Tiro (Sourced from here) 

South Korea and Turkey in the race to build Indonesia's two new submarines

The Indo Defense Blog had two recent articles on Indonesia's new submarine program.  One article was from South Korea and was about Korea being short listed to provide two submarines to Indonesia. That was not unexpected given the amount of defence industry cooperation between the two countries.

A South Korean shipbuilder has been picked among the final candidates to export submarines to Indonesia, officials here said Friday [01 Jul 11].

However, there was also an article from Turkey quoting an un-named Turkish Defence official claiming that Indonesia was about to sign a deal with Turkey soon to have Turkey build the submarines due to recent improvements in the Turkish shipbuilding industry.

Indonesia is expected to shake hands with Turkey soon on the production of two submarines, a Turkish Ministry of Defense official has told Today's Zaman.

Strategic manhunting and understanding the second order effects

I was reading this article in Foreign Policy about what the author termed strategic manhunting. (HT to the On War and Words Blog.) He has also completed a soon to be published book on the subject.

I think that a key point in the article was in the conclusion, my emphasis added:

And yet there is a danger in relying too heavily on such operations. Forcing an individual to go to ground renders him strategically ineffective and creates space for other actors to step to the fore. The successful targeting of an individual is probably less important from a strategic standpoint than successfully targeting the network that supports him or will carry on the struggle in his absence.

The latest ICG report on Afghanistan is sobering and timely

The latest ICG report on Afghanistan released last Monday is sobering and timely. It is titled 'The Insurgency in Afghanistan's Heartland' and gives an assessment that seems to run counter to some more positive claims coming out of the official spokespeople in some western capitals. The first paragraph of the summary immediately sets the tone:

The insurgency in Afghanistan has expanded far beyond its stronghold in the south east. Transcending its traditional Pashtun base, the Taliban is bolstering its influence in the central-eastern provinces by installing shadow governments and tapping into the vulnerabilities of a central government crippled by corruption and deeply dependent on a corrosive war economy. Collusion between insurgents and corrupt government officials in Kabul and the nearby provinces has increased, leading to a profusion of criminal networks in the Afghan heartland. Despite efforts to combat the insurgency in the south, stability in the centre has steadily eroded. Yet, with nearly one fifth of the population residing in Kabul and its surrounding provinces, the Afghan heartland is pivotal to the planned transition from international troops to Afghan forces at the end of 2014. Given the insurgency’s entrenchment so close to the capital, however, it appears doubtful that President Hamid Karzai’s government will be able to contain the threat and stabilise the country by then.