Go to stage 3: No new US bases in the Philippines just the possibility of an increased US presence

Sunday, 29 January 2012

No new US bases in the Philippines just the possibility of an increased US presence

Subic Bay US Naval Base...still history (Source: Wikipedia)

There were some media reports recently about consideration being given for new US bases in the Philippines but careful reading of both the US and Philippines announcements showed that there was no talk of bases just an increased US presence. The US did have bases in the Philippines before but between the actions of Philippines Senate and the eruption of Mt Pinatubo the US left (or was expelled from, depending on your viewpoint) its bases including very large facilities at Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay Naval Base. The Philippines have strict laws against foreign bases and foreign military involvement as the US has discovered in its counter terrorism fight in the Southern Philippines. Knowing that history and the legal reality the Philippines Foreign Secretary made it clear that there were no discussions about US bases in the Philippines.

"It is to our definite advantage to be exploring how to maximise our treaty alliance with the United States in ways that would be mutually acceptable and beneficial."

The US position was also made very clear by the Commander of US PACOM.

“There is no desire nor view right now that the U.S. is seeking basing options anywhere in the Asia-Pacific theater.”

The US is making it clear that it is not after foreign basing of its military at present. This is probably not economically attractive in the current financial climate but it is also not strategically attractive. While a military base in an important part of the world does give the US a stable position to launch operations from it comes with costs. The US base can become a target for the domestic politics of that country, as occurred in the Philippines in the early 1990s and as still occurs in Japan and South Korea. The presence of US forces in a base could also raise expectations that the US will become engaged in any security issue experienced by that country. By following the current strategy the US is developing a flexible approach. It showed during the 2004 Tsunami response that it could deploy forces into the region at short notice to assist local security forces. By giving itself the option of rotating troops it can adjust its presence in the region depending on the acceptance of the host government and the security situation. It can therefore escalate as required and de-escalate as well. This could be to balance moves by China or to pressure regional governments. (A removal of US troops from a country may be equally as effective as sending more troops to a country.)

Without expensive base facilities the US is no longer tied geographically to an area. This is also not 1945; the region has some excellent facilities that can adequately support military operations, the US does not need to build them.

China is of course watching the US carefully and the new US military focus on the region. the official spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Defence recently remarked:

"There is a movement towards greater peace and stability across the Asia-Pacific region...We urge the United States to follow the prevailing trend, take an objective and balanced view of China and its military and behave cautiously and in a manner conducive to developing good relations."

It is clear that the US wants to have a military role in the region and it is clear that China will continue to expand its influence in the region. The key will be to see common security interests and build on those. These can include sea lane security, anti-piracy, regional stability and counter-terrorism. Time will tell how this plays out.

Posted at 15:01 in Philippines | Permalink

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